April 16th, 2008

ERP is commonly used by companies working within the supply chain to help keep track of all the moving parts of manufacturing and distribution. For instance, it’s often used to track orders made by the factory that will be packaged in the shipment (get the details from TEC). It’s also used to track shipping details, like the carrier and the port it is loaded at. A SIPRnet or E-TRANSPORT network could help track shipments on other transit networks (e.g. trucks, trains, ships) by linking with them on the rail, water, road, or air transportation network. In addition, the system could track individual parcels and parcels of a family or other group of parcels as part of a company’s business supply chain. This is especially helpful when the network links to other companies using the SIPRnet and E-TRANSPORT, such as the packaging company.

What Are the Risks?

If we were to consider the overall risks to the supply chain from these systems, we could say that they would be very low. After all, this type of technology is relatively new, so there is no historical precedent for the potential effects of this type of system. The risks would be somewhat higher if there were the opportunity to implement these systems in some areas of the supply chain. The risks might be even higher in certain areas if these systems were not well understood, if they were difficult to implement or if they did not fit with a company’s existing business plan. As stated above, there are currently no proven systems in operation that are as detailed or comprehensive as the SIPRnet system. In addition, there is a need to develop more precise and timely methods of determining the efficacy of the different methodologies and measuring its effectiveness. Furthermore, the types of risk associated with potential failures of SIPRnet may not be apparent to a company operating in a supply chain environment. The results of the SIPRnet-based system will be useful to management in evaluating the benefits of implementing new technologies. However, the implementation of a SIPRnet-based system should not be used to determine the presence or absence of any such problems or as a basis for determining the cost of any such system. Further, the limitations of the SIPRnet-based system are not in the nature of limitations of any existing technology but rather represent limitations of the mathematical models used to develop the system. The limitations of the SIPRnet-based system should not be viewed as significant in that they are generally similar to those of other, simpler SIPRnet-based systems (such as those used for financial system simulations and computer-based risk management and analysis) and provide for similar, well-defined risk management functions.

Many of the models in the SIPRnet-based system are derived from simple geometric functions. However, some models do rely on more complex formulas to describe how the values for the various parameters of those functions are expected to behave (for example, the formula for the Poisson distribution). As a result, a number of such formulas are complex (i.e., require an understanding of complex function theory) and, as discussed below, other models may not be a suitable choice for these uses. In addition, many SIPRnet-based models are based on the so-called Generalized Poisson (GPP) model, which provides a mathematical model of the probability of events of a given type happening given the value of certain parameters.

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